Mathematical modeling of vibrio vulnificus infection in Korea and the influence of global warming

Chaeshin Chu, Younghae Do, Yongkuk Kim, Yasuhisa Saito, Sun Dong Lee, Haemo Park, Jong Koo Lee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objectives: To investigate the possible link between Vibrio vulnificus population size in seawater and water temperature. Methods: We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans. Results: We developed a mathematical model to connect V. vulnificus incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures. Conclusion: Increased V. vulnificus population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)51-58
Number of pages8
JournalOsong Public Health and Research Perspectives
Volume2
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2011

Keywords

  • Global warming
  • Infectious disease
  • Mathematical modeling
  • Temperature
  • Vibrio vulnificus

Cite this