Long-Term Prognostic Value of Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography in an Asymptomatic Elderly Population

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Background: The prognostic value of coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) for evaluating coronary artery disease in asymptomatic older adults is controversial. We investigated the prognostic value of CCTA in community-dwelling elderly Koreans. Methods and Results: Participants (n=470; mean age: 75.1±7.3 years) who underwent CCTA were enrolled from KLoSHA (Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging), a community-based prospective cohort. Using CCTA, coronary artery disease was classified as normal, nonobstructive, or obstructive according to the presence of 0%, <50%, or ≥50% stenosis, respectively. Coronary artery calcium scores were investigated together with Framingham risk score, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease score, and individual risk factors. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as a composite of cardiac event–related death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. During a median follow-up of 8.2 years (interquartile range: 7.7–10.1 years), MACE occurred in 24 participants (5.1%). Compared with the normal group, participants in the obstructive group showed higher incidence of MACE (hazard ratio: 5.65; 95% CI, 1.22–26.16; P=0.027), whereas there were no significant differences in MACE between the normal and nonobstructive groups. The 8-year event-free survival rates were 98.1±1.1%, 94.9±1.6%, and 81.7±4.8% in the normal, nonobstructive, and obstructive groups, respectively. Compared with the Framingham risk score and coronary artery calcium score model, CCTA improved risk prediction by C-index (from 0.698 to 0.749) and category-free net reclassification index (0.478; P=0.022). Conclusions: CCTA showed better long-term prognostic value for MACE than coronary artery calcium score in this asymptomatic older population.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere013523
JournalJournal of the American Heart Association
Issue number23
StatePublished - 3 Dec 2019



  • Asian
  • elderly
  • major adverse cardiac outcome
  • prognosis
  • subclinical atherosclerosis

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