Age-period-cohort analysis of thyroid cancer incidence in Korea

Chang Mo Oh, Kyu Won Jung, Young Joo Won, Aesun Shin, Hyun Joo Kong, Jin Soo Lee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

34 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Purpose: South Korea has the highest incidence rate of thyroid cancer in the world, and the incidence rate continues to increase. The aim of this study was to determine the age-period-cohort effects on the incidence of thyroid cancer in Korea. Materials and Methods: Using the Korean National Cancer registry database, age-standardized incidence rates and annual percent changes (APCs) in thyroid cancer according to sex and histologic type were analyzed between 1997 and 2011. Age-period-cohort models were applied using an intrinsic estimator method according to sex. Results: In both men and women, the incidence of thyroid cancer showed a sharp increase from 1997 through 2011. Among the histologic types, papillary carcinoma showed the greatest increase, with APCs of 25.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22.7% to 27.5%) in men and 23.7% (95% CI, 21.9% to 25.5%) in women, whereas anaplastic carcinoma did not show a significant increase in either sex. An increase in overall thyroid cancer incidence over time was observed in all birth cohorts. An age-period-cohort model indicated a steeply increasing period effect, which increased prominently from 1997 to 2011 in both men and women. The age effect showed an inverted U-shaped trend. The cohort effect tended to show a slight increase or remain constant from 1952 to 1977, followed by a decrease. Conclusion: The period effect can explain the sharp increase in thyroid cancer incidence, strongly suggesting the role of thyroid screening.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)362-369
Number of pages8
JournalCancer Research and Treatment
Volume47
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2015

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Korea
Thyroid Neoplasms
Cohort Studies
Demography
Incidence
Cohort Effect
Confidence Intervals
Republic of Korea
Papillary Carcinoma
Registries
Thyroid Gland
Parturition
Databases
Carcinoma
Neoplasms

Keywords

  • Incidence
  • Korea
  • Neoplasms
  • Thyroid
  • Time trends

Cite this

Oh, Chang Mo ; Jung, Kyu Won ; Won, Young Joo ; Shin, Aesun ; Kong, Hyun Joo ; Lee, Jin Soo. / Age-period-cohort analysis of thyroid cancer incidence in Korea. In: Cancer Research and Treatment. 2015 ; Vol. 47, No. 3. pp. 362-369.
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Age-period-cohort analysis of thyroid cancer incidence in Korea. / Oh, Chang Mo; Jung, Kyu Won; Won, Young Joo; Shin, Aesun; Kong, Hyun Joo; Lee, Jin Soo.

In: Cancer Research and Treatment, Vol. 47, No. 3, 01.01.2015, p. 362-369.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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